FINAL: Oscar Predictions - Major Categories

Best Picture
1) No Country for Old Men (Lock)
2) There Will Be Blood (Lock)
3) Michael Clayton (98% chance)
4) Into the Wild (95% chance)
5) Atonement (75% chance - a shot in the dark here but I think it will make it)

Alternates: Juno, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Best Director
1) Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men (Lock)
2) Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood (Lock)
3) Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Lock)
4) Sean Penn - Into the Wild (95% chance)
5) Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd (75% chance)

Alternate: Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton

Best Actor
1) Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood (Lock)
2) George Clooney - Michael Clayton (Lock)
3) Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd (Lock)
4) Viggo Mortenson - Eastern Promises (95% chance)
5) Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild (80% chance)

Alternate: Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl

Best Actress
1) Julie Christie - Away From Her (Lock)
2) Marion Cotillard - La Vi En Rose (Lock)
3) Ellen Page - Juno (Lock)
4) Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart (Lock)
5) Amy Adams - Enchanted (60 % chance)

Alternates: Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Laura Linney - The Savages

Best Supporting Actor
1) Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
2) Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
3) Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
4) Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
5) Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War

Alternate: Tommy Lee Jones - No Country for Old Men

Best Supporting Actress
1) Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
2) Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
3) Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
4) Catherine Keener - Into the Wild
5) Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement

Alternates: Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement

Best Original Screenplay
1) Michael Clayton
2) Juno
3) The Savages
4) Lars and the Real Girl
5) Ratatouille

Alternate: Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

Best Adapted Screenplay
1) No Country for Old Men
2) There Will Be Blood
3) The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
4) Zodiac
5) Into the Wild

Alternate: Atonement

So those are my final predictions before the announcement Tuesday morning. There certainly will be some surprises, but I believe these are the most likely nominations. I'm most uneasy about Atonement for Best Picture and Amy Adams for Best Actress. For Atonement, it is loved by many and not liked too much by others, but I believe the love will carry it through. As for Adams, I don't think Cate Blanchett will be nominated twice, especially when Elizabeth was loathed by so many as a film, and Adams is a nice change of pace for the lot. Tuesday morning can't come soon enough and I can't wait to see the actual nominees for this year's Oscar race.